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Table of contents

DB provided a first rough draft of the synthesis table and the manuscript.

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All authors contributed to substantial revision and identifying and summarizing key metrics and modifiers, as well as editing and refinement of the text, tables and figure. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

We thank R. Gallery and M. Adams for feedback on specific points in the manuscript. Adams, H. Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought. Nonstructural leaf carbohydrate dynamics of Pinus edulis during drought-induced tree mortality reveal role for carbon metabolism in mortality mechanism. New Phytol. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought.

Ecohydrological consequences of drought-and infestation-triggered tree die-off: insights and hypotheses. Ecohydrology 5, — A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality. Allen, C. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene. Ecosphere 6, 1— A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecol.

Anderegg, W. Hydraulic and carbohydrate changes in experimental drought-induced mortality of saplings in two conifer species. Tree Physiol. Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate.

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Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress. Change 3, 30— Bennett, A. Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide. Plants Bonan, G. Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science , — Bradford, J. Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future. Breshears, D. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. When ecosystem services crash: preparing for big, fast, patchy climate change.

Ambio 40, — Horizontal heterogeneity in the frequency of plant-available water with woodland intercanopy-canopy vegetation patch type rivals that occurring vertically by soil depth. Ecohydrology 2, — Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements.

Choat, B. Triggers of tree mortality under drought.

Nature , — Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought. Nature , Clark, J. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Clifford, M. Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient. Cobb, R.

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Ecosystem dynamics and management after forest die-off: a global synthesis with conceptual state-and-transition models. Ecosphere 8:e Cochard, H. Vulnerability of several conifers to air embolism. Dietze, M. Ecological Forecasting. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: needs, opportunities, and challenges. Duan, H. Drought responses of two gymnosperm species with contrasting stomatal regulation strategies under elevated [CO2] and temperature. Fisher, R. Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model due to ecological scale limitations.

Floyd, M. Garcia, E. Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses. Gaylord, M. Hartmann, H. Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought-induced tree and forest mortality. Huang, C. Remote Sens. Huang, K. Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought.

Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Field, V. Barros, D. Dokken, K. Mach, M. Mastrandrea, T. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. Ebi, Y. Estrada, R. Genova, B. Girma, E. Kissel, A. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. Mastrandrea, L.

Google Scholar. Jump, A. Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback. Change Biol 23, — Koepke, D.

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Species variation in water relations and xylem vulnerability to cavitation at a forest-woodland ecotone. Forest Sci. Variation in woody plant mortality and dieback from severe drought among soils, plant groups, and species within a northern Arizona ecotone.

Oecologia , — Krofcheck, D. Detecting mortality induced structural and functional changes in a pi-on-juniper woodland using Landsat and RapidEye time series. Kurz, W. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Lajtha, K. Carbon gain and water-use in pinyon pine-juniper woodlands of northern New Mexico—field versus phytotron chamber measurements.

Tree Phsiol. Law, D. Expanded use of environmental extremes versus trends in bioclimatic modeling to predict individual demographic events. Plant Sci. LeMaitre, D.